CryptoLeaksEditorial correction: 2026-10-09
A four-year model is a planning window, not a promise of equipment life or payback. Start with a monthly cash plan that distinguishes equipment purchases, refundable deposits, infrastructure spending and recurring expenses.
Record the actual ASIC specification, measured or assumed power, price and difficulty date, pool fee, operating uptime and contract tariff. Include shipping, customs, repairs, financing and exit costs outside an electricity-only calculator. A deposit ties up cash even when it is refundable and not an economic expense.
Run downside, base and alternative scenarios. Keep difficulty changes separate from Bitcoin price changes and model the subsidy change at an explicitly chosen month. Bitcoin subsidy timing follows block height; a calendar month is a planning assumption, not a protocol guarantee.
Check whether early cash needs can be funded even when a full-period model shows a positive margin. A projected payback ignores liquidity stress unless costs and receipts are timed correctly. No fixed four-year lifecycle or profitability rule applies to every miner.
Use the difficulty simulator to compare assumptions, then request current hosting and equipment terms. Preserve the input date with the result so a later comparison uses the same basis.
Sources and further reading
https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/block_chain.html
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