CryptoLeaksThe outlook. The reasons. The record.
A daily Bitcoin research view from 1 to 90 days. It reads recent price moves, weighs the signals, checks a threshold and records what happened next.
01Read
02Weigh
03Check
04Track
Latest published research batch. · 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 UTC
A directional research output, not a price target. A score of 60 does not mean a 60% chance of rising.
Hosted indicator engine
Last capture: 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 · PASS
Completed UTC candle: 2026-10-12 · Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candle
Accuracy counts the first published forecast per observation and horizon, so overlapping imported and host forecasts are counted once.
BITCOIN CYCLE CONTEXT
Where are we now?
Model phase: Not supplied
As of 2026-10-12
The marker shows calendar time since the April 2024 halving within a four-year reference window. The next halving date is not fixed. Model phase is a separate label supplied by the Indicator. This is not a price curve or a predicted market top.
RESOLVED 1-DAY OUTCOMES
38.5%
52 resolved outcomes. Small sample; not an investment return.
Why this signal?
Recent 1-, 7- and 30-day price changes are weighted differently for each horizon. A directional threshold separates bullish, neutral and bearish outputs.
Latest 1-day contributions: Completed BTC daily closes; weighted 1-, 7- and 30-day momentum.
3.1.0-research-host-1 · UNCALIBRATED_RESEARCHHow it checks itself
The model saves a dated prediction from completed UTC observations. Its entry rule is the next UTC daily close. After the forecast period ends, the outcome is checked against the source model’s return threshold. Unfinished forecasts stay out of the accuracy total.
What it does not confirm
No guaranteed price, profit or cycle turning point. This model is uncalibrated. Its published signal inputs are price changes; do not assume on-chain, macro or independent confirmation layers absent from the source.
Recent forecasts
| UTC | Horizon | Direction | Raw score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 90D | Neutral | 17.39 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 60D | Neutral | 17.39 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 30D | Neutral | 2.25 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 14D | Neutral | -2.08 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 7D | Neutral | -12.86 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 3D | Neutral | -16.59 |
| 2026-10-13T01:20:02.732351+00:00 | 1D | Bearish | -20.33 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 90D | Bullish | 25.14 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 60D | Bullish | 25.14 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 30D | Neutral | 10.22 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 14D | Neutral | 5.96 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 7D | Neutral | -1.29 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 3D | Neutral | 1.81 |
| 2026-10-12T01:20:01.992739+00:00 | 1D | Neutral | 3.20 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 90D | Bullish | 24.99 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 60D | Bullish | 24.99 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 30D | Neutral | 12.33 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 14D | Neutral | 8.72 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 7D | Neutral | 1.72 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 3D | Neutral | 2.62 |
| 2026-10-11T01:20:03.108005+00:00 | 1D | Neutral | 2.50 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 90D | Neutral | 16.33 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 60D | Neutral | 16.33 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 30D | Neutral | 6.25 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 14D | Neutral | 3.37 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 7D | Neutral | -0.90 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 3D | Neutral | 2.45 |
| 2026-10-10T01:20:02.240803+00:00 | 1D | Neutral | 4.34 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 90D | Neutral | 12.41 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 60D | Neutral | 12.41 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 30D | Neutral | 0.84 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 14D | Neutral | -2.47 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 7D | Neutral | -10.79 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 3D | Neutral | -13.80 |
| 2026-10-09T01:20:03.882218+00:00 | 1D | Neutral | -16.77 |